As 2007 comes to a close, most Realtors
throughout the greater Houston area are reflecting on the year with
a sense of pride and, more than likely, are also breathing an audible
sigh of relief.
Daily media coverage about foreclosure woes outside Texas has helped
paint a grim picture of the overall national real estate marketplace.
That has left some prospective home buyers and sellers in the Houston
area waiting, watching and worrying. However, while markets in California,
Florida and Nevada have been the true epicenters of those woes,
suffering dramatically as a result of the subprime mortgage meltdown,
Houston has remained relatively unscathed and, in fact, continues
to thrive.
The latest Houston Association of Realtors figures show that Houston
is on pace for the second-best year on record, off only about 3
percent from 2006 in single-family home sales and ahead of the market's
outstanding performance in 2005.
Unlike many other parts of the country, Houston remains an excellent
market in which to invest, with home values up about 4 percent,
following the 6 percent increase of 2006. In fact, the year-to-date
total dollar volume of single-family home sales is still higher
than last year's level. The year-to-date average sales price of
a single-family home in Houston is nearly $206,000 and the median
sales price is $152,000; both are all-time records for the greater
Houston area.
The Bush administration's recently announced plan for a five-year
freeze on interest payments for certain subprime mortgages is likely
to ease nerves among jittery borrowers and lenders as 2008 gets
under way. Critics of the measure express concern about the true
long-term benefits of government intervention as an alternative
to allowing the marketplace to correct itself.
However, proponents and critics alike agree that conditions will
improve when Congress completes its modernization of Federal Housing
Administration programs that will once again make the FHA a viable
mortgage product and help protect many current and future homeowners
by offering a secure alternative to subprime loans. The National
Association of Realtors has also been pushing Congress to reform
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and increase their conforming loan limits,
which will not only help home buyers but also help improve liquidity
in the lending industry.
Houston-area Realtors taking comfort in the robust local housing
climate for now would be well advised to prepare for the possibility
of some market weakness in the early part of the new year. While
fluctuations in Houston home prices are unlikely, repercussions
of the subprime debacle threaten to hurt sales of starter homes
whose buyers and sellers may be inclined to take a wait-and-see
approach to any future transactions.
As we transition from 2007 to '08, the local housing market continues
to be buoyed by a strong job market in which there are plenty of
people with documentable income and good credit who can proceed
with their pursuit of the American dream of homeownership from a
wide selection of attractive housing inventory.
Rob Cook is 2007 chairman of the Houston Association of Realtors
and broker/owner of Robert D. Cook Properties.
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